TOPSHOT – Vehicles are seen abandoned by heavy snowfall in downtown Buffalo, New York, in December. … [+]
It’s late Friday night, 11/29/24 and snow is moving into the Great Lakes region. Hot off the press from AccuWeather.com at 10:48 p.m. center is this:
“Hazardous and life-threatening conditions will develop in the snowpack downwind of the Great Lakes early next week as lake effect increases with whiteout, rapid accumulation and falling temperatures.”
This is a familiar forecast for the Great Lakes region. Snowfalls are the stuff of legends in Buffalo, NY, which sits on the eastern edge of Lake Erie. With global warming on the rise, can Buffalo residents hope that someday soon the skies won’t be so cold and their snowstorms won’t be so destructive?
Not according to the results of a recent multi-agency study on future climate conditions and lake-effect snowstorms. It was led by Michigan Technological University climate scientist Miraj Kayastha.
HAMBURG, NY – DECEMBER 24: Ice covers Hoaks Restaurant along the Lake Erie shoreline on December 24, … [+]
A lake-effect blizzard (LES) forms when cold, dry air passes over a warm lake. Dry air has a great capacity to absorb water. When the temperature difference between cold air and warm water causes the lake water to evaporate, the exchange of moisture between the lake surface and cloud formation destabilizes the atmosphere. The rougher, higher land surrounding the lake can also deliver water particles, adding to moisture exchange and atmospheric instability. After all, newly fat clouds dump large amounts of snow in a stormy sky.
In Kayastha’s study of the future of lake-effect storms, he and colleagues took what they call a “history line” approach, using two modeling systems to examine and quantify the forces that created a single LES storm in November of 2022. This storm dropped 77 inches of snow in Erie County, New York. (That’s Buffalo County.) With that information and using their own modeling tools, scientists predicted how strongly those November 2022 forces might be in play in the Great Lakes region during the mid-to-late 21st century.str century, when the climate is expected to be warmer (and then warmer still). In the 2022 storm, snowfall accounted for 89% of total precipitation. The rest was rain. Kayastha and his team predicted that, in the projected mid-century climate, snowfall from LES storms will account for about 78% of precipitation. By the end of the century, almost half (54%) of precipitation from LES storms will be rain.
Unfortunately, a relative increase in rain is not necessarily good news. Rain on snow poses a significant risk of flooding. Moreover, as the century progresses and the air and water warm and ice blocking evaporation melts, there may be more precipitation altogether. The Kayastha team predicted that by the end of the 21ststr century, total LES storm precipitation will increase by 14%.
AccuWeather.com’s forecast for the Great Lakes region this week is worrisome. If history is any indication of the future, the predicted storm may be more of the same-old same-old horror. Just under two years ago (December 2022) dozens of people in Eerie County died in an LES storm. Atmospheric instability created by evaporation and precipitation contributed to the 70 mph wind speed. Wind chills dropped to -30F and helped create the disaster.
By the time this article went online, Kayastha was unavailable for comment and the storm was winding down. The Great Lakes are the world’s largest system of unfrozen surface fresh water. Lake effect storms don’t happen every year, but they are a common occurrence. Climate change does not seem to bring relief.